资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

一个月能有多大的变化啊! Investor sentiment experienced a V-shaped recovery in October after turning cautious – if not fearful – in September. 股市大幅反弹&P 500’s 7.10月份的零增长抹去了9月份的4.下降7%.

在上个月的《申博备用网》中, we acknowledged many headline risks but stressed the importance of remaining focused on fundamentals. 恰好在此时, the turnaround’s primary catalyst proved to be another surprisingly strong quarterly earnings season. 90%的S&p500报告了第三季度的结果,公司盈利增长41.5%和收入16.2%. Q3 marks the sixth consecutive quarter that corporate earnings growth has exceeded analysts’ initial estimates by at least 10%. Surging Delta variant cases during Q3 dramatically impacted GDP growth (only 2.0%), but recent subsiding trendlines and promising new antiviral medications have also contributed to Q4’s sudden optimism. 目前对第四季度GDP的预测高达8.2%的增长.

从十月中旬开始,S&P 500 rallied to its best month since November 2020 and recorded this year’s 59th all-time high on October 29th. 所有11个股票类股在总回报基础上都实现了收益. 非必需消费品(+ 10.9%)是本月的领先者,其推动力是特斯拉的43辆.7%的流行. 能源(+ 57.9%)尽管有潜在的颠覆性,但仍继续引领所有行业, 长期气候变化倡议. International developed market stocks also posted a solid monthly gain (+2.5%), while continued heavy losses in China saddled the broad-based emerging market index (+1.0%).

U.S. Treasury yields inched higher during October amid 高通货膨胀ary pressures and in anticipation of the Federal Reserve announcing a timeline for tapering asset purchases. 因此,巴克莱美国分行(Barclays U.S. aggregate bond index declined modestly for the month and remained negative YTD (-1.6%). TIPS (inflation-indexed securities) led all fixed income sectors, rallying 1.并且受益于高通胀预期.

上周, 美联储宣布了其精心策划的缩减购债计划, 但更有影响力的发展是在财政方面. Equity markets surged after President Biden unexpectedly removed capital gains and corporate tax rate hikes from his spending and tax bill. 分析师们立即上调了他们对2022年企业收益的预测, 尽管增加了劳动力和投入成本, 如果持续下去, 会对营业利润率造成压力.

的年代&P 500’s 24% gain through October marked the ninth time it has achieved a +20% October YTD return in the past 70 years. 在之前的8个场合, the ensuing November/December period always finished higher with an average gain of 6.2%.

而大型U.S. 从年初至今和过去三年中,股市的表现都优于大盘, 占主导地位的是大型股. The index weighting of the current ten largest growth stocks has surpassed index concentration levels last reached 21 years ago (see our 当月海图). 值得注意的是, five of those ten largest stocks from the dot-com era are still trading below their March 2000 price.

今天的科技巨头(微软, 苹果, 字母, 亚马逊, 特斯拉, 脸谱网, and NVIDIA) have compelling and profitable business franchises yet lofty valuations. Looking forward, we aren’t suggesting a 20-year price decline like Lucent, Citigroup, GE, AT&或思科系统. 然而,在不断变化的经济环境中(i.e., 重新开放顺风, 美联储逐渐减少, 高通货膨胀, 以及潜在的加息), 小盘股, 大型的周期性, 国际战略带来了诱人的机会, 太. We continue to believe a disciplined and diversified investment approach offers the best path to preserving wealth and achieving your long-term financial goals.

 

约翰·西尔维亚的《申博备用网》 经济学主任

  • This week’s consumer price inflation numbers highlight that inflation has become the number one issue for policy makers and investors. 10月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)上涨6.比去年增长2%,这是自1990年以来最快的12个月增长. 虽然申博备用网现在可能看到通胀数据见顶, October’s sizeable increase suggests inflation concerns cannot be dismissed.
  • 与此同时,就业增长稳健,标志着良好的经济增长. 经济的许多部门都有广泛的增长, 失业率再次下降. 明年上半年,申博备用网可能会接近充分就业.
  • Structural issues are manifest in the drop in both the labor force and the employment-population ratio compared to Feb. 2020. Therefore, it is not surprising that firms are complaining about the lack of skilled labor. The demand side of the labor market is strong; however, the supply side is lacking.
  • 同时理解通胀和增长数据, the Federal Reserve announced the start of a reduction in their pace of asset purchases with the completion of the taper by mid-2022.
  • 2021年全年, economic growth is expected to be 6% with strong gains in consumer spending, 住宅投资, 和商业投资. Inflation rates have risen over the past year and will present several challenges to investors as real returns on cash and sovereign debt continue negative. With the Federal Reserve now committed to reducing their expansionary policy, 现在,金融资产价格将出现进一步波动.
  • Benchmark Treasury yields began rising in August along with inflation concerns. Persistent inflation remains an issue for Treasury debt owners and buyers.
  • 与美联储的政策意图一致, 申博备用网预计通胀和基准利率将会上升, 随着美国经济的稳步下滑.S. 美元价值. 更长期的观点是更高的通胀和利率. 因此,扣除通货膨胀和税收后,实际回报通常是负的.
  • 即使是在经济扩张的情况下, there are periods of accelerating and decelerating growth/inflation benchmarks that can distract from the long-run goals of investors. Investment opportunities and risks change as the economic recovery evolves, 通常是由于经济政策的变化.

当月报价

“智者开始做的事,愚者最终会做。.”

古老的谚语

当月海图

The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only, 这并不构成要约, 对出售或购买证券的邀请或推荐, 投资产品或投资咨询服务. All information, views, opinions and estimates are subject to change or correction without notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, legal, tax, or other advice. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s circumstances and objectives. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. 投资建议可能会改变, and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. 所提供的资料以公共资料为基础, 据信可靠的消息来源,但申博备用网无法证明其准确性. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. 过去的表现并不一定代表未来的回报. The following indexes were used as proxies in the performance tables: Global Stocks = MSCI ACWI; U.S. 大帽= S&P 500; U.S. Large Value = Russell 1000 Value; U.S. Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth; U.S. Small Cap = Russell 2000; Int’l Dev Stocks = MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets = MSCI EM; U.S. 信用等级债券=巴克莱美国公司.S. Aggregate; U.S. High Yield Bonds = Barclays Corporate High Yield; Emerging Markets Debt = JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified; Int’l Bonds = Barclays Global Treasury ex US; Cash = 3month T-Bill; Sector returns displayed in the chart represent S&标普500指数成分股,而美国国债基准则来自巴克莱

资料来源:截至2021年4月10日的战略分析.

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